Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.008093 0.009119 0.010229 0.011517 0.012973 0.014569 0.016450
2026-01-25 0.006425 0.007823 0.009458 0.011512 0.014028 0.017014 0.020834
2026-02-01 0.005390 0.006924 0.008816 0.011328 0.014582 0.018666 0.024199
2026-02-08 0.004757 0.006384 0.008481 0.011392 0.015340 0.020530 0.027901
2026-02-15 0.004216 0.005874 0.008094 0.011298 0.015820 0.022006 0.031160
2026-02-22 0.003890 0.005605 0.007983 0.011535 0.016733 0.024105 0.035430
2026-03-01 0.003440 0.005109 0.007494 0.011169 0.016724 0.024863 0.037795
2026-03-08 0.003103 0.004738 0.007142 0.010955 0.016896 0.025865 0.040571
2026-03-15 0.002794 0.004378 0.006769 0.010665 0.016906 0.026599 0.042963
2026-03-22 0.002678 0.004303 0.006819 0.011028 0.017954 0.029013 0.048222
2026-03-29 0.002544 0.004185 0.006787 0.011249 0.018783 0.031127 0.053159
2026-04-05 0.002429 0.004086 0.006775 0.011496 0.019665 0.033387 0.058523
2026-04-12 0.002255 0.003877 0.006570 0.011408 0.019985 0.034749 0.062496
2026-04-19 0.002111 0.003709 0.006419 0.011399 0.020440 0.036380 0.067099
2026-04-26 0.001953 0.003501 0.006183 0.011217 0.020564 0.037422 0.070700
2026-05-03 0.001849 0.003381 0.006089 0.011280 0.021133 0.039309 0.076041
2026-05-10 0.001730 0.003225 0.005919 0.011187 0.021399 0.040644 0.080426
2026-05-17 0.001668 0.003168 0.005924 0.011423 0.022306 0.043259 0.087561
2026-05-24 0.001532 0.002961 0.005632 0.011060 0.022013 0.043521 0.089950
2026-05-31 0.001427 0.002805 0.005426 0.010848 0.022000 0.044325 0.093518
2026-06-07 0.001322 0.002641 0.005191 0.010561 0.021807 0.044746 0.096301
2026-06-14 0.001298 0.002637 0.005271 0.010920 0.022978 0.048059 0.105609
2026-06-21 0.001260 0.002600 0.005284 0.011139 0.023869 0.050851 0.114016